Saturday, December 22, 2007

I realize that I haven't posted in a while, and, for what it's worth, I'm sorry. I am very excited about my new investments. Let me tell you about them, in no particular order:

1. CEDU @ 8.64: This company provides online degree programs to already existing Chinese universities. This is pretty cool from a branding standpoint because the company doesn't need to convince people that its program is actually legit - unlike the University of Phoenix (ha-ha). Spending on education in China is growing at a blistering pace as the government tries to educate a billion people. And, since education is a normal good, as the GDP grows, education spending will grow.
Risk: moderate
Holding time: Who knows, it just IPO'd

2. EFTC @ 3.32: I bought a covered call position (strike price: 4) that expires in January. I think that these distressed mortgage companies will rebound, bolstered by the January effect. I don't really know about a long-term holding here, but I am willing to sell covered calls all day as long as the implied volatility is greater than 100.
Risk: moderate (with CC)
Holding time: until the CC expires (Jan @ 4) or if I feel like holding it afterwards if the call is OTM

3. SLM @ 21.83: Another covered call position. SLM has a great business model, where the government foots 95% of their loan losses. That is a LOT better than the 60% of value that banks are able to get off of foreclosures on mortgages. I think that the last conference call proves how difficult it is to be a public company - say the wrong thing, and the market punishes you. Have any of their fundamentals changed? No. Is cutting the dividend a problem? No. Is it going to get worse? Maybe.
Risk: moderate (with CC)
Holding time: until the CC expires (Jan @ 25) or if I feel like holding it afterwards if the call is OTM

4. LUV Jan '09 call 15 @ 1.61: I bought into this position right before the Fed's interest rate cut which was a ridiculously foolish thing to do - had I waited a few days, I could have saved myself a good 25-30%. This is a play on cheaper oil and industry consolidation - I am very confident that both are coming. I may exit this position if there is a large run up in the stock price but I have no qualms about holding it for a year.
Risk: high
Holding time: Until expiration or a large change in IV

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